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Newsfile PR Newswire Dollar Gains on US Economic Strength Rich Asplund - Barchart - Mon Jul 27, 2:32PM CDT Columnist All
information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart
Disclosure Policy here Share Puzzle of money by TPopova via iStock The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.06% on Monday.
The dollar found support from Monday's US economic news, which showed that new capital goods nondefense, ex-aircraft and
parts orders rose more than expected, a sign of economic strength. Some safe-haven demand also supports the dollar as
President Trump has raised the possibility of intensified action against Iran and as Houthi militants in Yemen claimed
to have struck facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. Gains in
the dollar were limited on Monday, as an easing of tensions in the Middle East has curbed safe-haven demand for the
currency after the US and Iran held off on attacks for a third straight day. Also, Monday's -7% plunge in WTI crude
oil has lowered inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to pursue easier monetary policy, a negative factor for
the dollar. In addition, lower T-note yields on Monday weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials. US Jun
capital goods new orders, nondefense ex-aircraft and parts rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m.The
markets are discounting a 34% probability of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.EUR/USD
(^EURUSD) fell slightly by -0.02% on Monday. The dollar's rebound on Monday weighed on the euro. However, losses in
the euro were limited after the German Jul IFO business confidence index rose more than expected to a 5-month high.
Also, Monday's -7% fall in crude oil prices is supportive of the Eurozone economy and the euro as Europe imports most of
its energy. In addition, hawkish comments on Monday from ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir were bullish for
the euro when he said he favors another ECB interest rate increase.The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose
+0.9 to a 5-month high of 86.6, stronger than expectations of 86.0.ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said "he
remains of the view that the ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time" to ensure that inflation
risks don't spin out of control.The markets are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy
meeting on September 10.USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell by -0.05% on Monday. The yen recovered further from last Thursday's
39-year low of 163.99 yen/USD on Monday, amid lower T-note yields. Also, Monday's -7% plunge in crude oil prices is
supportive for the Japanese economy and the yen as Japan imports more than 90% of its energy. In addition, the yen has
support from the ongoing risk of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. Japanese authorities have
intervened in the forex market several times in the past when the yen surpassed 160 yen/USD, as it has this
week. However, Monday's Japanese economic news was bearish for the yen after the May leading index CI was revised
downward by -0.3 to 116.5 from the originally reported 116.8. Also, Japan Jun PPI services prices eased to 3.2% y/y
from 3.4% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of no change at 3.4% y/y.The yen continues to suffer from weak interest
rate differentials, with markets discounting only a 4% chance of a +25 bp BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on
Friday. The BOJ's current policy rate of 1.00% is well below the Fed's federal funds rate target of 3.50%-3.75%.August
COMEX gold (GCQ26) on Monday closed up +6.20 (+0.15%), and September COMEX silver (SIU26) closed down -0.194
(-0.33%).Gold and silver prices settled mixed on Monday. The -7% plunge in crude oil prices on Monday lowered
inflation expectations and could prompt central banks worldwide to ease monetary policy, a bullish factor for precious
metals. Also, precious metals prices continue to receive safe-haven support from US-Iran hostilities along with
concerns of a widening conflict in the Middle East after Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Arabian ships in the Red Sea over
the weekend.Strength in the dollar on Monday was negative for metals prices. Also, some safe-haven demand for precious
metals was curbed after the US held off on further airstrikes against Iran for a third straight day on Monday, and Iran
signaled it would refrain from any retaliation as it held negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday,
Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations, said the US is giving diplomacy "some space."Recent fund liquidation of
precious metals is bearish for prices, as long holdings in gold ETFs fell to a 10-month low last Monday, after reaching
a 3.5-year high on February 27. Also, long holdings in silver ETFs fell to a 1-year low on July 14 from the 3.5-year
high posted on December 23.Strong central bank demand for gold is supportive of gold prices, following news that bullion
held in China's PBOC reserves rose by +480,000 ounces to 75.44 million troy ounces in June, the twentieth consecutive
month the PBOC boosted its gold reserves. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or
indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is
solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. Related Symbols
Symbol Last Chg %Chg DXY00 101.329 -0.088 -0.09% U.S. Dollar Index GCQ26 4,042.2 +3.5 +0.09% Gold SIU26 58.230 +0.701
+1.22% Silver ^USDJPY 163.535 -0.335 -0.20% U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen ^EURUSD 1.13945 +0.00078 +0.07% Euro/U.S. Dollar
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