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Prices Click Here for 150+ Global Oil Prices 1D 1M 3M 1Y All Charts Headlines 14 hours Iran Says Hormuz Stays Closed
Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping Demands 2 days Citi Lifts Brent Outlook but Still Sees Oil Falling in 2027 2 days
Norway’s $2.3-Trillion Fund Opposes SEC Idea to Rescind Climate Reporting 2 days ADNOC Reports 15 Vessel Attacks as
Hormuz Risks Mount 2 days Libya Aims to Boost Oil Production to 2 Million Bpd by Early 2030s 2 days ADNOC Buys 11
Supertankers for $1.3 Billion to Expand Export Fleet 2 days Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey to Sign Defense Deal 2
days India Remains Dependent on Imports for 90% of Oil Demand 2 days India's Crude Oil Output Falls for Third Straight
Year 2 days Shipping Through Hormuz Drops Sharply as Tensions Rise 2 days China’s Crude Imports Bounce Back After
Historic June Slump 2 days Russia Turns to South Korea for Fuel as Refinery Crisis Deepens 2 days Oil Prices Jump as
Houthi Attacks Raise Saudi Supply Risks 2 days Russian Oil Production Climbs Above 9 Million Bpd in July 3 days Aramco
Deepens Asia Oil Discount Ahead of Possible Hormuz Deal 3 days Chinese Oil Giant Launches World-First 16MW Floating Wind
Turbine 3 days Angola Confirms New Offshore Oil and Gas Reserves With Katambi-2 Well 3 days Gulf Shipping Grinds to a
Halt Following Houthi Missile Claim 3 days Indian Refiners Continue West Africa Crude Buying Spree 3 days Nigeria Eyes
$50 Billion From 22 Offshore Oil and Gas Projects 3 days Europe's Gas Storage Hits Lowest Level Since 2011 as Winter
Looms 3 days How the UAE Has Kept Its Oil Flowing Through Hormuz 3 days China’s Top Refiner Pivots to Russian Crude 3
days U.S. Diesel Exports Hit Record High as Domestic Stockpiles Slide 3 days Iran and Oman Near Landmark Deal to Manage
Strait of Hormuz 4 days India Hopes To Take Over Operation Of Venezuelan Oil Fields From PDVSA 4 days Hormuz Draft
Agreement Reportedly Awaits Khamenei Approval 4 days India Weighs Gas Levy to Bankroll $42 Billion Fuel Reserve Plan 4
days Hormuz Bottleneck Pushes Indian Refiners Toward West African Grades 4 days Iraq-Syria Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz
Could Be Revived Within 3 Years 4 days Houthis Claim Ballistic Missile Hit on Saudi Oil Tanker in Red Sea 4 days Oil
Price Rally Boosts Glencore’s First-Half Profit 4 days U.S. Moves to Keep Tungsten Scrap and Battery Metals at Home 4
days Red Sea Attack Sinks India-Flagged Cargo Vessel Off Yemen 4 days China’s Power Demand Hits Records as Heatwave
Grips Key Regions 4 days China Eases Fuel Export Curbs as Global Supply Crunch Deepens 4 days Hormuz Tanker Traffic
Remains Subdued Despite Reports of Peace Talks 4 days US Crude Oil Inventories Build As Washington Talks Up Potential
Peace Deal 5 days Oil Markets Price In an Iran Deal That Does Not Exist Yet 5 days ONGC Profit More Than Doubles as Oil
Prices Surge Breaking News: Iran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping Demands Find us on: Brent
Briefly Breaks $90 After Fresh Iran War Escalation Brent crude briefly climbed above… ADNOC Makes One of the
Biggest Changes to Middle East Crude Pricing in Years ADNOC will shift all Abu… China's Next Move Could Decide
Where Oil Prices Go This Year China's crude import pullback helped… Home Energy Oil Prices Irina Slav What I Cover
Irina Slav has been writing about global energy markets since 2007, covering the oil and gas industry, energy security,
commodities, and the… More Info Share Facebook Twitter Linkedin Reddit Set us as your preferred Google source
Premium Content Oil Traders Stay Bearish Despite Deepening Middle East Disruptions By Irina Slav - Aug 07, 2026, 6:00 PM
CDT Oil markets remain surprisingly bearish despite ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, with traders betting on a
diplomatic breakthrough. Physical oil markets remain tight, with the IEA estimating global production is still 9.4
million bpd below pre-war levels and nearly 3 million bpd of regional refining capacity offline. Analysts warn markets
may be underestimating the risk of a future price spike. Despite continued hostilities in the Middle East and an
expansion of the war to the Red Sea, oil traders have remained largely bearish on the commodity, betting on a quick
peace deal—and they might get a nasty shock.Earlier this week, Brent crude sank below $80 per barrel, and WTI dropped
below $75, after President Trump said peace talks between the United States and Iran had resumed, even though Iranian
officials denied there were any talks in progress. However, Iran is negotiating a deal about control over the Strait of
Hormuz with Oman, which traders apparently took as more bearish news for oil.Meanwhile, the Yemeni Houthis are striking
Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, prompting yet another rerouting of Saudi oil exports to the Suez Canal and a pipeline to
the Mediterranean coast of Egypt that has much smaller capacity than the East-West pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the
Red Sea port of Yanbu. This would mean additional constraints on Saudi oil exports, yet traders appear to be largely
oblivious to the fact.In further fresh news from the Persian Gulf, the Iranian parliament is discussing a bill to ban
access to the Strait of Hormuz to U.S., Israeli, and other “hostile” vessels. That would not do much for the free
passage of energy carriers in the region, and it would certainly do nothing about improving the prospect of peace
between Tehran and Washington. Related: ADNOC Reports 15 Vessel Attacks as Hormuz Risks MountIndeed, the last bit of
news seems to have gotten traders’ attention and oil prices were up on Friday, reflecting the possibility of extended
restrictions on tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which, it might be worth recalling, used to account for about a
fifth of global oil and gas trade before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.The situation is quite
unique. In any oil crises in the past, futures prices have normally reflected events on the ground rather than
speculation. The latest example was the oil price surge back in 2022, when sanctions on Russia from the West appeared to
threaten a solid chunk of global oil flows, with Russia being a top-three exporter. When this did not happen and Russian
oil and fuel flows simply redirected from the West to the East, a perception came to dominate the oil market that oil,
like love, always finds a way.True as this is, this time there is literal destruction of supply—and this is what a lot
of traders are ignoring. Global oil production, as of July, was 9.4 million barrels daily below pre-war levels, the
International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report. That was despite a sharp rebound of over 4 million
barrels daily in June as a result of the ceasefire deal that the U.S. and Iran agreed to, and that did not even last a
month.“Nearly 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the region has been shut due to attacks and a lack of
viable export outlets,” the IEA also warned in a separate report, which has made the refined oil product situation in
the world complicated. Not only this, but the amount of crude in storage in the Gulf has declined, after the flood of
oil that Gulf states sent out after the ceasefire deal was agreed in June.According to Kpler data cited by Reuters’
Ron Bousso, Gulf states exported 70 million barrels of crude in the weeks following the deal. This leaves 80 million
barrels still in storage. They could be released if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but that would leave storage empty.
Global supply of crude oil, in other words, is still tightening. Yet oil prices are not reflecting this.The situation is
problematic because it could make a future oil price shock a lot more severe than it would have been otherwise. Analysts
noted early on in the war that it takes several months for the supply tightness in crude oil to fully materialize on
physical markets and affect prices. Five months after the first strikes, we are much nearer to that point of full
materialization.Even so, analysts appear quite confident that the war will end soon. ING commodity analysts earlier on
Friday wrote that “Despite clear signs of progress in recent days, the tenor of the rhetoric and growing distrust
between the US and Iran mean things could go from bad to worse once again. For now, we hold onto our view that flows
will start to normalise through the third quarter, which leaves us expecting Brent to average $80/bbl this quarter.”
They are not alone in their optimism, even if there is little cause for it.Some, however, are beginning to suspect that
there will not be a return to full normal, even after the end of the war, whenever it comes. Iran’s discussion of
charging for ships passing the Strait of Hormuz and the idea of co-managing it with Oman suggests that post-war Middle
East oil flows will be different—and while those alternative pipelines get built, prices will be higher.By Irina Slav
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