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‘strengthen’ Lula against Bolsonaro’s son in upcoming electionsWith Lula polling ahead and tariffs squeezing
Brazil’s economy, the Bolsonaro family’s Washington strategy is faltering.ListenListen (7 mins)SaveClick here to
share on social mediashare-nodesSharefacebookxwhatsapp-strokecopylinkgoogleAdd Al Jazeera on GoogleinfoSenator Flavio
Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a candidate in Brazil's October presidential election, lifts his
hand during a protest against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in Sao Paulo, on March 1, 2026 [Andre Penner/AP
Photo]By Hannah RaslanPublished On 23 Jul 202623 Jul 2026A slew of United States actions against Brazil, including a
range of tariffs and sanctions on local criminal gangs, is playing into Brazilian voter sentiment ahead of the
presidential elections in October.As incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth,
non-consecutive term, he will compete against the Liberal Party’s Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President
Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison term.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3US to impose new 25
percent tariffs on some Brazilian importslist 2 of 3Brazil court bars Bolsonaro’s son from visiting ex-president for
90 dayslist 3 of 3Brazilian football legend Pele’s World Cup shirt sells for $4.9mend of listBrazil will hold the
first round of the general election on October 4, with a run-off, should Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro both advance, on
October 25.Lula has cast himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty in response to US tariffs and sanctions.Last
week, the administration of US President Donald Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on many Brazilian goods, the result
of a yearlong investigation that alleged Brazil’s trade practices were “unreasonable”.The US argued that Brazil
unfairly favoured its state-run Pix payment system over private competitors, imposed an 18 percent tariff on US ethanol
imports, and failed to enforce deforestation laws strictly enough, thereby benefiting Brazilian timber producers.The
levies are part of the administration’s strategy of rebuilding its tariff wall after the Supreme Court struck down in
February the emergency powers Trump had used to unleash tariffs on most trading partners.The previous tariffs of up to
50 percent on Brazil were tied to the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro for plotting to overturn the results of the
2022 elections, which he lost to Lula. Trump had called the investigation a “witch-hunt”. A recent Quaest poll for
Folha de S Paulo suggested Lula is leading Flavio Bolsonaro 45 percent to 37 percent in a second-round run-off election.
Advertisement “His political movement, Bolsonarismo, is afraid that tariffs actually strengthen Lula’s support in
the upcoming elections, because Brazilians are very disgusted with the US imposing tariffs,” Gimena Sanchez, director
for the Andes at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), said.She said that a Bolsonaro win in October would
serve Washington’s broader interests.Trump’s early relationship with BolsonaroTrump was an early and vocal backer of
the elder Bolsonaro, whose 2018 rise to Brazil’s presidency drew comparisons with Trump’s political style. Before
Bolsonaro’s 2022 re-election bid, Trump recorded a video endorsement, calling him “one of the great people in all of
politics”.After Bolsonaro lost the race, he did not concede and questioned the reliability of Brazil’s electronic
voting machines. Thousands of his supporters later stormed government buildings in Brasilia, a federal
district.Prosecutors said Bolsonaro and his allies had plotted a coup to keep him in power. In July 2025, while the
trial was still under way, Trump imposed the first round of tariffs on Brazil and sanctioned the Brazilian Supreme Court
justice overseeing the case.“Trump has been a leading figure not only to the Bolsonaros but also to the wide range of
extreme-right politicians in Latin America since his first term,” said Gustavo Blum, a Brazilian geopolitics
analyst.He said the alignment was simpler in 2018, when Trump’s focus was chiefly on countering China, a significant
trading partner for Brazil and other countries in the region, and the continent’s left-leaning political
leaders.“Now, with the imposition and re-imposition of trade tariffs, it’s been harder for the Bolsonaros to give a
perspective in which Trump is looking out for Brazilians’ interests and not only Americans’ interests,” Blum said.
A family facing legal troubles on two frontsIn June, a Brazilian Supreme Court panel convicted Eduardo Bolsonaro,
Jair’s third son, of lobbying the US to interfere in his father’s trial. Eduardo had moved to the US full-time to
“focus 100 percent” of his energy on “a single cause”: freeing his father.The panel said that Eduardo’s
actions amounted to coercion against Brazil’s justice system and sentenced him to four years and two months in
prison.Flavio, on the other hand, has faced separate scrutiny at home since May, when reports emerged that he sought
roughly $24m from Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed former head of collapsed lender Banco Master, to help finance a film about
his father. Advertisement Flavio acknowledged requesting the money but denied any impropriety or wrongdoing.Blum said
the scandal has added to the family’s difficulties with both Washington and Brasilia. “The family hasn’t been able
to use the connection with Trump with success,” he said.Flavio has asked Washington to delay the new tariffs until
after the election, arguing they would hand Lula “precisely the political victory it has been engineering”.Lula has
accused Bolsonaro of inviting the pressure himself, calling the request “yet another act of treason against the
Fatherland”. Sovereignty as a campaign argumentWOLA’s Sanchez said the Bolsonaro camp’s lobbying campaign with
Washington has largely failed to produce results.But one request did prove effective. Days after Flavio met Trump at the
White House in May, the State Department designated Brazil’s two largest criminal factions, the PCC and Comando
Vermelho, as foreign “terrorist” organisations.Flavio had personally requested the designation and said it was a
result of his lobbying. Lula called the measure an “arbitrary” step that threatened Brazilian sovereignty.The tariff
order Washington issued weeks later separately named Pix, Brazil’s free, government-run payment network used by more
than 90 percent of Brazilians, as an unfair trade practice.Flavio, defending the system before US officials, said Pix
was “good for Brazil”.Business support grows more cautiousBrazilians across the political spectrum have reacted
negatively to Trump’s involvement in the election.“Even right-wing Brazilians, when they see President Trump trying
to meddle with Brazilian elections, are not very pleased, because they think that Brazilian problems should be solved in
Brazil, not in Washington, DC,” said Patricio Navia, a political scientist at New York University.Navia said the
reaction also reflected Brazil’s desire to avoid being drawn into the broader rivalry between the US and China, its
largest trading partner.“China is the most important trade partner; the US is the most important strategic partner,”
he said. “They don’t want their best friend and their most important trade partner to fight with each other.”
Brazil’s manufacturing and agribusiness sectors, which broadly backed Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022, have grown more
cautious amid the economic pressure from Trump’s tariff policies.Navia said the unpredictability of how the Trump
administration wields tariffs makes it difficult for any ally to plan around it. “Not even those who declare
themselves to be Trump’s friends can tell you what will happen,” he said.aj-logoaj-logoaj-logo Advertisement
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